As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will GameStop acquire eBay?” at 6% YES with $3.0M traded. 7 tracked wallets hold a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
GameStop disclosed a 9.8% eBay stake and floated a ~$55B cash-and-stock bid, but a deal that size faces steep financing and antitrust hurdles.
GameStop Corp. moved to acquire eBay in a bid first reported on Friday, May 1, 2026, with the company confirming a non-binding proposal on May 3 to buy all outstanding eBay shares for $125 per share in a cash-and-stock deal valuing the transaction at roughly $56 billion. The offer represented a 20% premium to where eBay stock closed the prior Friday. CEO Ryan Cohen argued that a combined company would form a larger competitor to Amazon and indicated he would run the merged entity. The proposal drew immediate scrutiny after Cohen declined to detail the bid's structure during a CNBC interview the following Monday. [Axios, May 04]
eBay's board rejected the approach the same month, describing it as "neither credible nor attractive." Despite the rebuff, GameStop signaled it would continue its effort to gamestop acquire ebay, reaffirming its intent in a regulatory filing on June 26 while also noting that full-year earnings would be strong — a disclosure that pushed its stock up more than 2% in after-hours trading. Days earlier, on June 24, GameStop said Cohen had sacrificed pay so leadership could stay focused on operating performance and the proposed eBay acquisition, and it pledged a detailed presentation on the strategic rationale. [Reuters, Jun 26]
The pursuit escalated on September 3, 2026, when GameStop disclosed it had raised its stake in eBay to 9.8%, reigniting speculation over whether it can ultimately gamestop acquire ebay after the earlier rejection. The larger position reaffirms Cohen's stated intent, though eBay's board has not endorsed a deal and the original $125-per-share proposal remains non-binding. What comes next hinges on whether GameStop tables a revised or formal binding bid, whether eBay's board reconsiders its stance, and how regulators would view a combination of the two retailers. For now, no agreement has been reached and the transaction remains contested. [Scanx, Sep 03]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo8/8 models agree on NO, fair value 8c vs market 6c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 6c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 94c | 82% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 92c | 88% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 78% |
8 of 8 models estimate NO fair value below market (74–98c vs 94c). Gemini Flash leads with 88% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 92c — market prices it at 94c. 2-point gap supports YES.
Seven tracked wallets are uniformly positioned on NO, with entries clustered at 82c-90c, signaling strong consensus that the acquisition will not occur. Their profitable positioning and absence of YES entries suggest informed money sees the deal as highly unlikely. This one-sided smart-money flow reinforces downward pressure on YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5bff..be ★ | Smart | NO | $21.7K | +11% | |
| 0xd039..32 | Smart | NO | $20.5K | +8% | |
| 0xe25b..1b | MM | NO | $133.1K | +7% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $95.0K | +14% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $5.9K | +9% | |
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $4.2K | +10% | |
| 0xc30c..09 | MM | NO | $3.2K | +4% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit with entries at 82c-90c against a current YES price of 6c, implying NO trades near 94c. The 0% of YES holders in profit means every YES entry is underwater, creating no profitable exit liquidity to support the 6c level. This asymmetry favors further YES decay toward zero as NO holders have no incentive to cover.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $3.0M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 8c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $3.0M |
| Our Model | 8c | — |