Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 34%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31. Currently, markets are divided (34% YES, 66% NO). Major upside risks remain for oil and product pricing in H2.

What’s Happening

Whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31 hinges on a fragile normalization that began after Washington and Tehran reached an interim plan to reopen the waterway. Vice President JD Vance said on June 30 that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to — and sometimes exceeded — pre-war levels following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, though he acknowledged that total vessel counts remain below pre-conflict norms. Cargo ships and other non-tanker traffic account for much of the shortfall, keeping overall transit volumes suppressed even as crude shipments recover. [NY Post, Jun 30]

The recovery remains uneven and exposed to sudden reversals. On June 29, commercial traffic dropped after attacks on two ships renewed concerns about shipowners' willingness to traverse the strait, though transit levels stayed above the lows recorded during most of the US-Iran war. To bolster confidence, U.S. naval forces reportedly began escorting and protecting supertanker transits by July 2, particularly along the Omani corridor, amid a fragile ceasefire and persistent naval-blockade risks. These escorts underpin any scenario in which Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31, but they also underscore that flows still depend on active military reassurance. [Crypto Briefing, Jul 2]

Broader market signals point toward gradual recovery. On July 5, OPEC+ approved a further output increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, citing falling prices tied to the reopening of the strait for oil exports. Yet analysts caution that transit levels remain well below pre-crisis norms and prone to abrupt reversals, with some assumptions still treating the waterway as effectively constrained into early summer. That gap between recovering crude flows and depressed total traffic defines the uncertainty over whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31. [ICIS, Jul 5]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 34c YES.