AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
74%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned NO at 86c, betting Hormuz traffic does not normalize by the deadline — consistent with the dominant NO lean and the structurally repeated pattern of smart money fading optimistic Hormuz-normalization horizons. The 86c entry signals conviction that resolution NO is near-certain rather than a speculative reach, though a single-wallet read is thin and should be treated as directional confirmation, not standalone alpha.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $185.2K | +6% | |
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | NO | $6.9K | +1% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | YES | $3.6K | -31% | |
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | NO | $3.0K | +10% | |
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $2.2K | +10% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $1.7K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$22,521 on $202.5K capital deployed (avg +11.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $18.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | ✓ matched |