Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 03, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $182.7K

Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Q: How did 'Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 03, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 03

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	93c	86%
Compound Signal	YES	71c	42%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	86c	72%
Gemini Flash	YES	84c	70%
Kimi Macro	YES	86c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 84c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 74c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$1.3K	+7%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+7%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 24 events · Feb 13 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 13BUYYES23+$12$12 Feb 15BUYYES44+$103$125 Mar 01BUYYES52+$8$155 Mar 02BUYYES54+$19$181 Mar 06BUYYES62+$37$243 Mar 07BUYYES59+$50$281 Mar 15BUYYES63+$23$323 Mar 16BUYYES58+$17$313 Mar 22BUYYES53+$5$293 Mar 23BUYYES52+$10$300 Mar 25BUYYES50+$5$291 Mar 26BUYYES53+$19$327 Apr 07BUYYES53+$5$332 Apr 08BUYYES44+$22$300 Apr 09BUYYES41+$2$280 Apr 17BUYYES41+$4$283 Apr 24BUYYES65+$15$461 Apr 25BUYYES52+$26$397 Apr 26BUYYES54+$3$416 May 16BUYYES72+$7$562 May 21BUYYES71+$7$561 May 22BUYYES74+$1,036$1,622 May 23BUYYES82+$46$1,831 May 27BUYYES90+$491$2,518 Realized— Unrealized+$177 Total Profit+$177 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 892 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$435 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg +34.5%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	86c	$182.7K	100c
AI Consensus	84c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar