Tools
Market Radar Copy Trading Compare Arbitrage X-Tweet Market Pricing
Learn
How It Works Accuracy Tracker Prediction Markets Guide Getting Started Legal & Regulation Tax Guide Safety Review
Other
Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $52K

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

NO
56c
YES
44c

Prediction markets put the probability at 44%: Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027. Currently, markets are divided (44% YES, 56% NO).

Currently at 44%

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 44c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY YES 45c

Models see 15-point mispricing — fair value 59c vs market 44c. BUY YES at 44c — models see 15c of upside.

+107% TARGET YIELD
27c
92c
100c
45c
59c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

Models Are Divided on This Market

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelYES72c—
MATH Compound SignalNO50c—
AI Claude Analysis???40c
35%
AI DeepSeek QuantYES61c
45%
AI Gemini Flash???55c
60%
AI Kimi MacroYES44c
61%

3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (44–72c vs 44c). Kimi Macro leads with 61% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 59c — market prices it at 44c. 15-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: Compound Signal dissents at 50c — Signal score 2 (MODERATE), 55% backtest accuracy on YES side. Blended fair value: 50% YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money positioning is directionally YES but capital-light — one wallet entering at 43c and holding through 44c suggests opportunistic alignment with the base rate rather than high-conviction alpha. The entry near current price signals the wallet views 44c as fair-to-slightly-cheap for Petro exiting before 2027, not a structural mispricing call.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xeec5..feRetailYES$1.6K+9%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All YES Positions Are in Profit

The single tracked wallet sits fully in profit on YES at a 43c average against a 44c market, a thin 1c cushion that offers minimal conviction signal. With no NO exposure tracked and 100% of YES profitable, there is no offsetting smart-money pressure, but the margin is too narrow to imply durable price support.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100% in profit
NO positions
0% in profit

Polymarket: 44c YES — $52K Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 44c with $52K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 59c. Significant 15-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket44c$52K
Our Model59c—
Back to Market Radar

Related Markets

Other
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
YES 32c
 Other
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
YES 16c
 Other
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?
YES 9c
 Other
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
YES 11c
 Other
AI bubble burst in 2026?
YES 22c

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 44% YES with $52K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 59c YES. 3 models agree on direction.