AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 80c |
60%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 57c |
14%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 78c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 68c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 59c |
68%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 68c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet positioned YES at 48c, signaling conviction that Petro exits before 2027 — entering below the 50c coin-flip line indicates directional thesis, not hedging. Single-wallet signal carries limited weight (no multi-wallet anchor), but the entry timing and profitability suggest informed positioning rather than noise. Direction lean: YES, with low confidence given thin tracked participation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeec5..fe | Retail | YES | $3.8K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$3,846 on $3.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 47c | $1.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 68c | — | × missed |