AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 52c |
4%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 33c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 36c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 34c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is split but the NO side dominates by size at a 68c cost basis — a stale, losing entry that now anchors resistance rather than signaling fresh conviction. The winning YES entry at 33c reflects better-timed positioning, hinting that tracked capital is drifting toward Stevens over the field even as the dominant NO leg bleeds.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $4.2K | +26% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,666 on $4.2K capital deployed (avg +39.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 34c | — | ✓ matched |