AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 41c |
18%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 32c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 28c |
35%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 70c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 54c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioning is directionally YES but extremely thin — one wallet at 27c is signal, not consensus. The near-the-money entry suggests the wallet views 27-28c as fair value for Świątek's title odds rather than a deep-value convexity bet. Direction lean is mildly bullish, but absence of multi-wallet confirmation means this is a watch-list signal, not an actionable [ALPHA] thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.1K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,106 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30c | $173.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 54c | — | × missed |