AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 70c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 94c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 94c |
84%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 78c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
One wallet quietly accumulating YES at 88c signals conviction that 3.5%+ inflation is structurally locked in for 2026, not a speculative flier. The 'NO' dominant-side label is misleading here given zero tracked NO entries — actual smart-money flow is unilaterally directional toward YES resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa52b..80 | MM | YES | $1.2K | +7% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$170 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +13.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $176.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 78c | — | ✓ matched |