AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money took a high-conviction NO stake at 88c, betting Iran will not announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations before August 15, and the market has since validated that read by collapsing YES to 6c. The absence of any YES entries signals no informed counter-thesis. This is a clean, one-directional NO conviction with no contested-side activity to hedge against.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $10.2K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,397 on $10.2K capital deployed (avg +13.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $1.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |