Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 29%: Will Iran close its airspace by July 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (29% YES). Ben Gurion Airport to remain open despite Iranian missile fire.

What’s Happening

Tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated sharply this week after Iran's top joint military command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 10, 2026 in response to fresh U.S. military strikes on Iranian territory. The declaration, framed by Tehran as retaliation against Washington's expanding campaign, raises immediate questions about whether Iran will also close its airspace by July 31 as the conflict broadens. U.S. Central Command separately confirmed that American forces shot down two Iranian attack drones near the Strait on June 12, which CENTCOM described as direct threats to commercial shipping and U.S. naval vessels operating in the Gulf. The Strait handles roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil flows, and any sustained military confrontation around the waterway carries direct implications for crude pricing and tanker insurance markets. [Sky News Australia, Jun 10]

Civil aviation has already begun rerouting around the conflict zone. Azerbaijan's air navigation authority AZANS reported that overflight volumes have quadrupled over the past five years as carriers avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Syrian airspace, a trend now accelerating with the renewed strikes. Israeli outlets meanwhile reported that the Israel Air Force used Azerbaijani and Iraqi corridors to reach targets inside Iran on June 8, a claim Baku denied through Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in a call with Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. In Tel Aviv, Transportation Minister Miri Regev convened an emergency meeting with the Israel Airports Authority on June 7 after Iranian missile fire, keeping Ben Gurion Airport open but preparing contingency plans to close Israeli airspace if attacks expand. Hawks in Washington argue that the strait closure has already crossed Tehran's deterrence threshold, while regional analysts caution that Iran has historically threatened airspace and shipping restrictions without full enforcement. [Jerusalem Post, Jun 8]

Whether Iran will close its airspace by July 31 hinges on three structural factors: the tempo of U.S. strikes through the next six weeks, Tehran's capacity to sustain coordinated retaliation across maritime and aerial domains, and the willingness of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to absorb the economic cost of cutting off overflight fees and commercial aviation revenue. A formal airspace closure would mirror the early-conflict posture Israel adopted in 2025 and would force carriers including Emirates, Qatar Airways and Turkish Airlines into longer Caspian or Arabian Sea routings. With drone interceptions ongoing near Hormuz and Iranian missile launches against Israeli targets continuing into the second week of June, the next NOTAM bulletin from Iran's Civil Aviation Organization will be the most direct signal of intent. [Aviation Week, Jun 10]

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