AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money took the contrarian NO entry at 65c when the market was pricing meaningful closure risk, and that thesis has played out cleanly. The absence of any tracked YES accumulation alongside a profitable NO holder signals tier-1 wallets view airspace closure by June 15 as a tail event, not a base case. Direction is firmly toward NO resolution at 7c with no smart-money reversal signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.3K | +34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,225 on $2.3K capital deployed (avg +53.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $814.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |