Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Prediction markets put the probability at 92%: Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage. Currently, markets see this as likely (92% YES). France Beats Iraq, Final Match Stats, Highlights & World Cup Group I Scenarios.

What’s Happening

Iraq sits at the bottom of FIFA World Cup Group I with a 0-0-2 record and a goal differential of -6 after two matches, making the prediction that they will finish last in Group I in the FIFA World Cup group stage a near-certainty at 92%. The team opened the tournament with a 4-1 loss to Norway on June 16, followed by a 3-0 defeat to France on June 22, where Kylian Mbappé scored twice. With zero points and a -6 goal difference, Iraq is already four goals behind Senegal (also on zero points) in the standings. The only path to avoiding last place would require a massive win over Senegal on June 26 combined with a France blowout of Norway, a scenario that analysts deem highly improbable given Iraq's defensive struggles and lack of attacking output. [Bleacher Report, Jun 23]

The team's form entering this tournament was already concerning, with Iraq winning just 2 of their last 5 competitive matches prior to the World Cup, and their defensive record has collapsed under tournament pressure. Against France, Iraq managed only 28% possession and 1 shot on target, while Norway's attack exposed them for four goals in the opener. Key striker Aymen Hussein's fitness is now in doubt ahead of the Senegal match, further weakening an offense that has scored just once in two games. Historically, teams with a -6 goal differential after two group-stage matches have finished last in their group in 94% of World Cup cases since 1998, reinforcing the statistical weight behind the current odds. [Yahoo Sports, Jun 24]

The final group-stage match against Senegal on June 26 at Toronto Stadium is effectively a battle for third place, as both teams enter with zero points. Senegal, despite losing 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, has shown more attacking life with 3 goals scored compared to Iraq's 1. For Iraq to avoid finishing last in Group I in the FIFA World Cup group stage, they would need to beat Senegal by at least 4 goals while hoping Norway defeats France by a similar margin — a scenario that would require a complete reversal of their tournament form. The prediction market's 92% probability reflects the near-consensus among analysts that Iraq's tournament is effectively over, with the only remaining question being the margin of their group-stage exit. [Telecom Asia Sport, Jun 25]

Traded on Polymarket — $50K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 92c YES.