How did 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 14, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 14, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $745.2K

Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Resolved · JUN 14

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	79c	58%
Compound Signal	YES	52c	4%
Claude Analysis	???	55c	35%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	66c	55%
Kimi Macro	YES	66c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 64c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is unanimously long Brunson at 51-54c, signaling directional conviction that current 49c pricing undervalues his MVP path. The tight entry band just above market implies wallets view this as an accumulation zone rather than a momentum trade, betting on playoff narrative compression to lift odds.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd1ed..cb	Retail	YES	$4.1K	-5%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 50c (-5%), $4.1K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jun 11 → Jun 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES51+$4,424$4,424 Jun 14BUYYES60+$726$5,930 Realized— Unrealized−$312 Total Profit−$312 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 474 trades).
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$2.4K	+10%
This Market Entered at 43c → now 50c (+10%), $2.4K on NO Activity · 6 events · May 20 → Jun 11 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYNO83+$89$89 May 30BUYNO74+$87$167 May 31BUYNO69+$2,069$2,224 Jun 06BUYNO50+$1,635$3,242 Jun 09BUYNO44+$283$3,141 Jun 11BUYNO42+$1,375$4,346 Realized— Unrealized+$433 Total Profit+$433 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1468 trades).
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$1.6K	-13%
This Market Entered at 54c → now 50c (-13%), $1.6K on YES Activity · 3 events · Jun 11 → Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 11BUYYES60+$755$755 Jun 12BUYYES50+$1,015$1,642 Jun 13BUYYES50+$5$1,643 Realized— Unrealized−$214 Total Profit−$214 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (138) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

70% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,839 on $8.1K capital deployed (avg +35.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

70% in profit

NO positions

30% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	47c	$745.2K	100c
AI Consensus	64c	—	✓ matched

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