AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets positioned NO near certainty pricing (88-91c), treating Fishback as a fringe candidate from entry. The absence of any YES smart-money accumulation at 8c signals no contrarian conviction — even at deep discount, tracked capital sees no path to the nomination. Direction remains firmly NO; current price reflects residual tail risk, not a buyable dislocation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $6.7K | +4% | |
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | NO | $1.7K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$883 on $8.4K capital deployed (avg +10.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $6.5M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |