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Politics
Resolves: Aug 2026 2 months left Volume: $413K

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

NO
89c
YES
11c

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Republicans Rick Jackson, Burt Jones advance to runoff in Georgia governor’s race.

Up from 6% to 11% since 2026-04-06 (+5pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $413K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 11c YES with $413K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
On this market: 5/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.
MODERATE OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 89c

5/5 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 11c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

+7% TARGET YIELD
53c
95c
100c
89c
87c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

5 of 5 Models Agree: NO

ModelSaysFair Value estimated fair priceConfidence
MATH PIN ModelNO98c—
MATH Compound SignalNO72c—
AI DeepSeek QuantNO92c
85%
AI Gemini FlashNO82c
65%
AI Kimi MacroNO89c
70%

5 of 5 models estimate NO fair value below market (72–98c vs 89c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 89c. 2-point gap supports YES.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 88c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xde7b..4bMMNO$1.6K+1%
See all 80 alpha wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

All NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 88c. At current price 11c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
100% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 71 Cents

Significant 71-cent gap: Polymarket at 11c vs Kalshi at 82c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 13c.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket11c$413K
Kalshi82c—
Our Model13c—
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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 11% YES with $413K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 13c YES. 5 models agree on direction.