Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 28, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.3M

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Q: How did 'Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 28, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 28

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (6 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	93c	86%
Compound Signal	YES	64c	28%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	78c	65%
Gemini Flash	YES	75c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	78c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 78c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 34c–73c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$3.6K	+0%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 50c (+0%), $3.6K on YES Activity · 11 events · Apr 10 → May 26 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 10BUYYES33+$92$92 Apr 20BUYYES43+$446$565 Apr 21BUYYES57+$528$1,277 Apr 22BUYYES54+$2,629$3,846 Apr 23BUYYES56+$173$4,150 Apr 24BUYYES60+$740$5,160 Apr 29BUYYES67+$740$6,562 May 12BUYYES71+$1,163$8,076 May 17BUYYES69+$1,509$9,358 May 24BUYYES72+$1,438$11,203 May 26BUYYES73+$2,141$13,500 Realized— Unrealized+$45 Total Profit+$45 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1212 trades).
0xe25b..1b	MM	YES	$1.6K	+6%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+6%), $1.6K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 03 DatePositionAmountTotal May 03BUYYES69+$1,466$1,466 Realized— Unrealized+$96 Total Profit+$96 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1130) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x3349..b8	MM	YES	$1.3K	+109%
This Market Entered at 34c → now 50c (+109%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 3 events · Mar 17 → Apr 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 17BUYYES31+$60$60 Mar 22BUYYES32+$196$258 Apr 12BUYYES36+$362$652 Realized— Unrealized+$710 Total Profit+$710 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (636) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,514 on $6.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	74c	$1.3M	0c
AI Consensus	78c	—	× missed

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