AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 59c |
18%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 74c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 78c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 35c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 75c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 78c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money positioning is thin (1 wallet) but directionally aligned with YES near current pricing, signaling Sinner is viewed as the rightful favorite. The 69c entry just below market suggests conviction without chasing — a constructive but low-confidence read given the limited sample, and the 'NO dominant side' tag likely reflects retail volume rather than informed flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3349..b8 | MM | YES | $2.9K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,278 on $2.9K capital deployed (avg +44.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $64.5K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 71c | — | ✓ matched |