Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Prediction markets put the probability at 82%: Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting. Currently, markets see this as likely (82% YES). Iran said it will not meet directly with the U.S.

What’s Happening

The White House confirmed on Friday, April 24, 2026, that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner will travel to Islamabad, Pakistan on Saturday, April 25, for a new round of talks aimed at de-escalating tensions with Iran. The announcement followed a statement from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicating that the delegation would engage directly with Iranian representatives. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei swiftly contradicted this, posting on social media that “no meeting is planned to take place between Iran and the U.S.,” and that Tehran’s observations would instead be conveyed through Pakistani intermediaries. This diplomatic confusion has placed the question of whether Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting at the center of speculation, as the trip proceeds despite Tehran’s denial of a direct bilateral session. [The Hill, Apr 24]

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Islamabad on Friday and is expected to meet with a Pakistani delegation, not U.S. envoys, according to Iranian state media and a U.S. official cited by CNN. The White House has framed the mission as an effort to “move the ball forward towards a deal,” with Kushner and Witkoff acting as President Donald Trump’s primary emissaries. The trip marks a significant escalation in U.S. diplomatic engagement, as it follows a previous round of direct U.S.-Iran talks hosted by Pakistan earlier in April. Analysts note that the outcome hinges on whether Iran will ultimately agree to a face-to-face meeting, making the likelihood that Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting a key indicator of progress. The development also coincides with heightened regional tensions, as Israel’s military confirmed it attacked sites in southern Lebanon on the same day. [NPR, Apr 25]

The structural factor that will determine the resolution of this diplomatic standoff is whether Iran’s leadership, under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, authorizes a direct encounter with U.S. officials in Islamabad. Iran’s insistence on indirect talks through Pakistan reflects its longstanding policy of avoiding normalization with Washington, even as both sides signal openness to a nuclear or sanctions-relief framework. If Kushner and Witkoff are relegated to meeting only with Pakistani mediators, the probability that Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting in a direct capacity will remain low. Conversely, a last-minute shift by Tehran—possibly driven by economic pressures or a desire to test Trump’s negotiating stance—could result in an unannounced bilateral session. The coming 48 hours will be critical, as the U.S. delegation is scheduled to depart for Islamabad on Saturday morning. [Ynetnews, Apr 24]

Traded on Polymarket — $79K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($79K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 82c YES.