AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 3c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 3c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 7c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entered NO at 91c and has ridden it to ~95c territory, signaling high-conviction structural disbelief in a Vance-Iran diplomatic meeting before May 31. With one-sided positioning and the deadline four days away, the wallet is treating this as a closeout trade, not an active thesis — directional read: NO resolves.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.2K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$115 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +9.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $101.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 7c | — | ✓ matched |