Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.1M

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Q: How did 'Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	10c	80%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	9c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 6 market makers are providing $55K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 14c–95c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$22.4K	+58%
This Market Entered at 48c → now 50c (+58%), $22.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 05 → May 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 05BUYNO16+$1,983$1,983 Mar 06SELLNO19−$190$2,165 May 19BUYNO80+$9,899$19,031 Realized+$30 Unrealized+$11,035 Total Profit+$11,065 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	NO	$19.5K	+82%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 50c (+82%), $19.5K on NO Activity · 10 events · Mar 03 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 03BUYNO80+$1,590$1,590 Mar 04BUYNO11+$1,970$2,185 Mar 04SELLNO61−$1,688$10,578 Mar 05BUYNO15+$378$2,992 Mar 05SELLNO15−$715$2,351 Mar 07BUYNO25+$1,354$5,178 Mar 07SELLNO24−$648$4,331 Mar 10BUYNO34+$540$6,665 Mar 10SELLNO34−$133$6,532 May 20BUYNO95+$1,333$19,585 Realized+$1,290 Unrealized+$14,739 Total Profit+$16,028 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1300) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c15..db +70%	MM	NO	$8.0K	0%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $8.0K on NO ↑ Position grew +70% since last snapshot Activity · 2 events · May 21 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 21BUYNO95+$4,760$4,760 May 22BUYNO95+$3,332$8,091 Realized— Unrealized−$43 Total Profit−$43 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1216) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4488..19 ★	MM	YES	$2.1K	-76%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 36c → now 50c (-76%), $2.1K on YES Activity · 11 events · Mar 26 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 26BUYYES44+$3,936$3,936 Mar 27BUYYES43+$1,682$5,562 Mar 27SELLYES42−$2,942$2,491 Mar 28BUYYES30+$126$1,906 Mar 29BUYYES29+$1,611$3,474 Mar 30BUYYES32+$2,779$6,602 Mar 31BUYYES32+$681$7,157 Apr 01BUYYES32+$2$7,234 Apr 02BUYYES32+$2,974$10,234 Apr 03BUYYES34+$46$10,882 May 08BUYYES41+$2,652$15,701 Realized−$100 Unrealized−$11,834 Total Profit−$11,934 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (926) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x71ed..eb	MM	NO	$1.5K	+571%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (+571%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 05 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 05BUYNO14+$216$216 Realized— Unrealized+$1,236 Total Profit+$1,236 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (756) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x47ab..df	MM	NO	$1.1K	+102%
This Market Entered at 47c → now 50c (+102%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 24BUYNO47+$519$519 Realized— Unrealized+$532 Total Profit+$532 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1164) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

96% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$97,846 on $54.6K capital deployed (avg +179.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

96% in profit

YES positions

4% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	6c	$4.1M	0c
AI Consensus	10c	—	✓ matched

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