Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Nov 04, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $1.8M

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Q: How did 'Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Nov 04, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · NOV 04

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

DIRECTION WRONG

87c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	25c	50%
Claude Analysis	NO	6c	78%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	85%
Grok Contrarian	YES	15c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is unanimously positioned against Porter, with NO entries at 94c signaling early conviction that has been validated by the collapse to 5c. The thin 8c YES entry was likely a low-cost lottery ticket rather than directional alpha — wallets are not accumulating on weakness, confirming structural NO bias.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x4e25..a7	MM	NO	$3.5K	+1%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (+1%), $3.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Apr 17 → Apr 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYNO94+$2,179$2,179 Apr 19BUYNO94+$1,312$3,486 Realized— Unrealized+$46 Total Profit+$46 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1694) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$1.0K	-43%
This Market Entered at 8c → now 50c (-43%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 10 → Apr 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 10BUYYES9+$1,257$1,256 Apr 18BUYYES5+$294$1,030 Realized— Unrealized−$540 Total Profit−$540 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (644) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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78% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$773 on $4.5K capital deployed (avg -17.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

78% in profit

YES positions

22% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$1.8M	0c
AI Consensus	11c	—	✓ matched

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