Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $5.5M

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Q: How did 'Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 27, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 27

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	97c	94%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	75c	50%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	97c	85%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	90c	95%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 92c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

9 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 13 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 9 market makers are providing $88K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 29c–95c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$26.7K	+55%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 50c (+55%), $26.7K on YES Activity · 7 events · Mar 20 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 20BUYYES43+$271$271 Mar 27BUYYES59+$1,226$1,598 Apr 08BUYYES63+$5,159$6,865 Apr 16BUYYES59+$3,643$10,073 Apr 24BUYYES57+$114$9,845 Apr 30BUYYES58+$5,920$15,938 May 06BUYYES58+$2,050$17,982 Realized— Unrealized+$9,864 Total Profit+$9,864 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1970) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$16.4K	+5%
This Market Entered at 65c → now 50c (+5%), $16.4K on YES Activity · 65 events · Oct 15 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Oct 15BUYYES46+$5$5 Oct 21BUYYES43+$4$9 Oct 27BUYYES37+$60$67 Oct 28BUYYES38+$12$80 Oct 31BUYYES38+$8$87 Nov 04BUYYES36+$7$91 Dec 19BUYYES57+$5$149 Dec 21BUYYES56+$2,258$2,405 Dec 23BUYYES53+$53$2,329 Jan 01BUYYES60+$360$2,996 Jan 07BUYYES59+$235$3,174 Jan 15BUYYES62+$79$3,414 Jan 16BUYYES62+$115$3,537 Jan 30BUYYES68+$51$3,909 Feb 01BUYYES69+$666$4,628 Feb 03BUYYES53+$32$3,610 Feb 05BUYYES57+$23$3,888 Feb 06BUYYES53+$16$3,625 Feb 08BUYYES45+$249$3,331 Feb 09BUYYES44+$598$3,847 Feb 13BUYYES71+$709$6,956 Feb 21BUYYES75+$605$7,972 Feb 23BUYYES83+$830$9,639 Feb 25BUYYES79+$220$9,400 Feb 27BUYYES78+$175$9,450 Mar 02BUYYES80+$1,057$10,791 Mar 04BUYYES48+$14,964$21,470 Mar 05BUYYES15+$14$6,663 Mar 06BUYYES19+$580$8,891 Mar 07BUYYES24+$497$11,868 Mar 09BUYYES26+$68$12,938 Mar 10BUYYES34+$91$17,128 Mar 11BUYYES38+$1,130$20,012 Mar 13BUYYES38+$85$20,273 Mar 14BUYYES39+$86$20,892 Mar 15BUYYES40+$41$21,282 Mar 17BUYYES39+$217$20,909 Mar 18BUYYES39+$311$21,491 Mar 19BUYYES39+$420$22,131 Mar 23BUYYES44+$880$25,563 Mar 24BUYYES44+$1,228$26,861 Mar 25BUYYES48+$622$29,840 Mar 26BUYYES56+$1,120$35,941 Mar 27BUYYES65+$7,435$49,081 Apr 02BUYYES62+$71$46,800 Apr 03BUYYES64+$595$49,076 Apr 04BUYYES62+$3$47,546 Apr 05BUYYES64+$463$49,543 Apr 07BUYYES64+$1,482$50,808 Apr 10BUYYES61+$279$48,902 Apr 11BUYYES61+$148$49,067 Apr 12BUYYES61+$368$49,435 Apr 14BUYYES61+$61$49,496 Apr 15BUYYES60+$169$48,853 Apr 16BUYYES59+$312$48,741 Apr 17BUYYES59+$3,332$52,057 Apr 22BUYYES56+$6$49,033 Apr 23BUYYES55+$451$48,731 Apr 25BUYYES57+$739$51,229 May 10BUYYES59+$759$54,104 May 12BUYYES60+$2,121$56,689 May 13BUYYES61+$785$58,144 May 14BUYYES61+$395$59,162 May 19BUYYES61+$9,955$69,050 May 20BUYYES95+$1,896$108,687 Realized— Unrealized+$5,098 Total Profit+$5,098 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0xd1ac..d5	MM	YES	$14.0K	+20%
This Market Entered at 39c → now 50c (+20%), $14.0K on YES Activity · 11 events · Jul 18 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 18BUYYES54+$27,000$27,000 Aug 15SELLYES64−$1,970$29,819 Aug 19SELLYES53−$9,006$15,979 Sep 12SELLYES54−$973$15,170 Nov 05BUYYES38+$90$10,702 Feb 24SELLYES82−$1,626$21,683 Mar 04SELLYES15−$3,929$66 Mar 05BUYYES12+$3,208$3,261 Mar 06BUYYES20+$588$5,971 Apr 14SELLYES60−$4,384$13,749 May 08SELLYES60−$4,800$8,912 Realized−$2,211 Unrealized+$8,298 Total Profit+$6,087 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1204) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$12.2K	-88%
This Market Entered at 43c → now 50c (-88%), $12.2K on NO Activity · 5 events · Feb 25 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Feb 25BUYNO21+$537$537 Mar 02BUYNO17+$1,056$1,487 Mar 04BUYNO48+$90,966$95,127 May 13BUYNO43+$2,918$87,917 May 20BUYNO6+$925$13,322 Realized— Unrealized−$84,190 Total Profit−$84,190 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1514) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeb6f..f0	Retail	YES	$11.1K	+34%
This Market Entered at 43c → now 50c (+34%), $11.1K on YES Activity · 12 events · Mar 04 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 04BUYYES51+$1,614$1,614 Mar 04SELLYES19−$1,570$0 Mar 05BUYYES15+$382$382 Mar 05SELLYES15−$148$234 Mar 06BUYYES20+$2,037$2,347 Mar 07BUYYES22+$799$3,394 Mar 08SELLYES22−$1,540$1,854 Mar 10BUYYES33+$450$3,271 Mar 15BUYYES40+$158$4,067 Mar 15SELLYES40−$208$3,858 May 19BUYYES94+$5,481$14,549 May 20BUYYES95+$1,142$15,845 Realized−$765 Unrealized+$6,094 Total Profit+$5,329 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$11.0K	+99%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (+99%), $11.0K on YES Activity · 5 events · Mar 06 → Mar 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 06BUYYES21+$483$483 Mar 09BUYYES27+$1,887$2,507 Mar 11BUYYES38+$785$4,347 Mar 11SELLYES37−$59$4,139 Mar 29BUYYES66+$280$7,662 Realized+$15 Unrealized+$7,582 Total Profit+$7,597 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1576) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x47ab..df	MM	YES	$7.2K	+107%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 50c (+107%), $7.2K on YES Activity · 6 events · Mar 09 → Mar 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 09BUYYES31+$775$775 Mar 10BUYYES36+$900$1,800 Mar 11BUYYES39+$438$2,388 Mar 12BUYYES40+$233$2,682 Mar 16BUYYES39+$115$2,730 Mar 25BUYYES54+$351$4,122 Realized— Unrealized+$4,419 Total Profit+$4,419 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1168) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4488..19 ★	MM	YES	$7.2K	+18%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 63c → now 50c (+18%), $7.2K on YES Activity · 11 events · Mar 27 → Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 27BUYYES57+$4,207$4,207 Mar 29BUYYES69+$2,408$7,513 Mar 30BUYYES65+$2,034$9,082 Mar 31BUYYES65+$838$9,877 Apr 01BUYYES66+$36$10,088 Apr 02BUYYES64+$1,525$11,353 Apr 03BUYYES62+$99$11,047 Apr 04BUYYES63+$136$11,361 Apr 12SELLYES60−$2,831$7,989 Apr 16SELLYES59−$2,312$5,544 Apr 17SELLYES59−$1,073$4,471 Realized−$326 Unrealized+$2,419 Total Profit+$2,093 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (928) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$4.0K	-24%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 50c (-24%), $4.0K on NO Activity · 4 events · Mar 04 → May 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 04BUYNO47+$46,626$46,624 Mar 05SELLNO84−$16,800$67,190 Mar 06SELLNO82−$13,328$52,030 May 19BUYNO40+$3,566$29,240 Realized+$13,195 Unrealized−$29,457 Total Profit−$16,262 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1754) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x011f..22	MM	YES	$2.8K	+115%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 50c (+115%), $2.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Mar 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 24BUYYES44+$1,320$1,320 Realized— Unrealized+$1,515 Total Profit+$1,515 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (850) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4e25..a7	MM	YES	$2.7K	+142%
This Market Entered at 32c → now 50c (+142%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 2 events · Mar 09 → Mar 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 09BUYYES31+$786$786 Mar 24BUYYES44+$119$1,235 Realized— Unrealized+$1,747 Total Profit+$1,747 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1694) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x22db..0f	Retail	YES	$1.4K	0%
This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYYES95+$1,425$1,425 Realized— Unrealized−$8 Total Profit−$8 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1574 trades).
0xfd2b..50	Retail	YES	$1.0K	+26%
This Market Entered at 75c → now 50c (+26%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 19 DatePositionAmountTotal May 19BUYYES75+$830$830 Realized— Unrealized+$217 Total Profit+$217 Wallet Type Retail wallet — smaller position, limited trading history.

See all 90 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

86% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$100,877 on $117.8K capital deployed (avg +85.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

86% in profit

NO positions

14% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$5.5M	100c
AI Consensus	92c	—	✓ matched

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