Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?'?

As of April 2026, prediction markets price this at 94% YES on Polymarket with $5.3M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?'?

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

94c

Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: will kevin warsh be confirmed as fed chair?.

Currently at 94%

Traded on Polymarket — $5.3M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $5.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 94c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC

Smart money signal: 4 tracked wallets positioned YES with 36.9x conviction. Backed by $5.3M in trading volume.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money entered YES at 94c–95c.

— TARGET YIELD

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 4 market makers are providing $77K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 94c–95c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xed10..e5 ★	MM	YES	$61.8K	0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 95c → now 94c (0%), $61.8K on YES Track Record 4mo on platform · 1776 trades · politics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1776) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$6.9K	+0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 94c (+0%), $6.9K on YES Track Record 1mo on platform · 1612 trades · economics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1612) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$5.4K	-5%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 6c (-5%), $5.4K on NO Track Record 1mo on platform · 1570 trades · geopolitics specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd039..32	MM	NO	$3.1K	-7%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 6c (-7%), $3.1K on NO Track Record 8mo on platform · 1280 trades · other specialist AI Insight Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1280) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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50% of YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 94c–95c, NO wallets at 6c. At current price 94c, 50% of YES holders are profitable vs none of the NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

50% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 94c YES — $5.3M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 94c with $5.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 94c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	94c	$5.3M
Our Model	94c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair??

As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 94% YES with $5.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair??

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair??

OddsShift tracks 4 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.