How did 'Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 14, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 14, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $14.4M

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Resolved · MAY 14

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 8 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	98c	96%
PIN Model	YES	97c	94%
Compound Signal	YES	85c	70%
Claude Analysis	YES	92c	72%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	97c	88%
Grok Contrarian	???	60c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	94c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	93c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 90c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Seven tracked wallets dominate the YES side at premium entries, signaling smart money conviction that Warsh's confirmation is near-certain. The willingness to pay 94c-96c — leaving minimal upside — indicates these wallets treat this as a low-risk yield play rather than directional speculation.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xed10..e5 ★	MM	YES	$58.2K	0%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 95c → now 50c (0%), $58.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Mar 13 → Mar 23 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 13BUYYES95+$55,485$55,484 Mar 23BUYYES94+$3,019$58,309 Realized— Unrealized−$256 Total Profit−$256 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5bff..be	MM	YES	$20.0K	—
This Market Entered at 94c, $20.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES94+$20,049$20,050 Realized— Unrealized— Total Profit— Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1082) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$19.4K	+9%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (+9%), $19.4K on NO Activity · 7 events · Mar 05 → Apr 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 05BUYNO6+$7,597$7,603 Mar 13BUYNO5+$553$7,428 Mar 19BUYNO6+$2,475$11,214 Apr 08BUYNO4+$2,595$10,148 Apr 09BUYNO5+$2,933$16,423 Apr 14BUYNO5+$273$15,197 Apr 15BUYNO6+$1,336$19,180 Realized— Unrealized+$1,653 Total Profit+$1,653 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (633) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfd2b..50	MM	NO	$14.5K	-4%
This Market Entered at 6c → now 50c (-4%), $14.5K on NO Activity · 4 events · Mar 16 → Apr 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 16BUYNO6+$5,572$5,570 Apr 09BUYNO7+$2,820$9,520 Apr 12BUYNO6+$2,182$10,651 Apr 15BUYNO6+$4,446$15,648 Realized— Unrealized−$545 Total Profit−$545 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (440) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$12.3K	0%
This Market Entered at 94c → now 50c (0%), $12.3K on YES Activity · 9 events · Mar 04 → Apr 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 04BUYYES92+$748$748 Mar 06BUYYES94+$1,884$2,650 Mar 19SELLYES94−$4,735$0 Mar 20BUYYES94+$942$942 Mar 30BUYYES96+$142$1,098 Apr 02BUYYES96+$1,059$2,165 Apr 10BUYYES94+$4,400$6,509 Apr 13BUYYES94+$2,088$8,640 Apr 14BUYYES95+$5,796$14,485 Realized+$21 Unrealized−$30 Total Profit−$10 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1584) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e ★	MM	YES	$4.2K	—
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 94c, $4.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 02 → Apr 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 02BUYYES96+$109$109 Apr 22BUYYES94+$4,137$4,244 Realized— Unrealized+$2 Total Profit+$2 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1570) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe ★	Retail	YES	$1.8K	-2%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-2%), $1.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Apr 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES96+$1,828$1,828 Realized— Unrealized−$31 Total Profit−$31 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1634 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

74% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$28,270 on $130.5K capital deployed (avg -21.7%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

74% in profit

NO positions

26% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$14.4M	100c
AI Consensus	90c	—	✓ matched

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