AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 10c |
80%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 32c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 10c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 20c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 19c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet positioned NO at 69c, a high-conviction fade when Knueppel's odds were materially stronger. That entry signals smart money viewed the ROY race as a fundamentally weaker bet for Knueppel even at elevated prices, and the 49-point drift to 20c has fully validated the directional thesis.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x82BA..52 | Smart | NO | $6.6K | -10% | |
| 0x53eC..91 | Smart | NO | $3.0K | -31% | |
| 0x38E5..E7 | MM | NO | $4.9K | -27% | |
| 0xDe04..37 | Retail | YES | $4.5K | +1% | |
| 0x0c3d..57 | Retail | NO | $3.0K | -20% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$26,755 on $43.7K capital deployed (avg +61.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 19c | — | ✓ matched |