As of October 17, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?” at 92% YES with $63K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 92% probability to: will lamine yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 ballon d'or?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY YES at 92c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | YES | 96c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 96c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 74c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 90c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 62c | 71% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 88c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 8 models estimate YES fair value below market (74–96c vs 92c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 89c — market prices it at 92c. 3-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 96c, a high-conviction position now sitting 4c below water, with no NO counter-positioning to offset risk. This concentrated YES exposure signals directional confidence in Yamal's top-3 finish but offers no smart-money hedge or contrarian read. With only one wallet tracked, the signal is thin and should be treated as a single conviction bet rather than broad consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | YES | $3.1K | -4% |
With YES trading at 92c against entries at 96c, all YES holders are underwater and no NO positions exist to show profit, leaving the market entirely in loss territory. The 4c gap between entry and current price means holders are absorbing a modest drawdown, which could pressure some to exit but also signals the market has repriced lower without a full collapse. Price support at 92c hinges on whether YES buyers view the dip as an entry rather than a warning.
Polymarket prices YES at 92c with $63K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 89c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $63K |
| Our Model | 89c | — |