AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 9c |
82%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
68%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 28c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned entirely on NO at 64c, signaling conviction that Yamal will not win the 2026 Ballon d'Or. With no YES entries recorded, there is no counter-flow from informed buyers, reinforcing the bearish direction and suggesting the market's 15c YES price reflects genuine skepticism rather than mispricing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | Smart | NO | $9.6K | +33% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,424 on $9.6K capital deployed (avg +56.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 15c | $11.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |