Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.1M

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Q: How did 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	6c	88%
Compound Signal	NO	35c	30%
Claude Analysis	NO	18c	62%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	20c	85%
Kimi Macro	NO	25c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 21c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 48c–59c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x011f..22	Retail	NO	$14.3K	+58%
This Market Entered at 48c → now 50c (+58%), $14.3K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jul 02 → Jul 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 02BUYNO50+$0$0 Jul 07BUYNO46+$2,840$2,841 Jul 08BUYNO50+$4,869$7,906 Jul 09BUYNO51+$1,014$9,089 Jul 10BUYNO36+$377$6,742 Realized— Unrealized+$5,225 Total Profit+$5,225 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1088 trades).
0xd48a..90	Retail	NO	$8.2K	+23%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 50c (+23%), $8.2K on NO Activity · 6 events · Jul 08 → Jul 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 08BUYNO53+$555$555 Jul 11BUYNO51+$500$1,038 Jul 12BUYNO54+$1,333$2,432 Jul 15BUYNO59+$2,483$5,149 Jul 17BUYNO67+$999$6,836 Jul 18BUYNO73+$500$7,879 Realized— Unrealized+$1,819 Total Profit+$1,819 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 248 trades).
0xd039..32	MM	NO	$4.2K	+40%
This Market Entered at 54c → now 50c (+40%), $4.2K on NO Activity · 1 event · Jul 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 14BUYNO54+$2,982$2,982 Realized— Unrealized+$1,193 Total Profit+$1,193 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1314) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$24,900 on $26.7K capital deployed (avg +93.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	25c	$4.1M	0c
AI Consensus	21c	—	✓ matched

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