Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jul 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $5.5M

Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?

Q: How did 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 5 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	12c	76%
Compound Signal	NO	30c	40%
Claude Analysis	NO	15c	68%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	12c	78%
Kimi Macro	NO	14c	86%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 17c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Both tracked wallets favor the NO thesis, and the profitable side is entirely on NO — smart money is positioned firmly against LeBron joining Golden State. The stale 27c YES entries never worked and the market has drifted 13c lower since, confirming the tracked flow's read that this stays a low-probability, resolve-NO outcome.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x011f..22	Retail	YES	$7.2K	-37%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (-37%), $7.2K on YES Activity · 18 events · Jul 01 → Jul 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 01BUYYES41+$1,471$1,471 Jul 01SELLYES41−$549$919 Jul 02BUYYES36+$41$844 Jul 02SELLYES33−$695$85 Jul 03BUYYES29+$1,824$1,900 Jul 03SELLYES18−$17$1,163 Jul 07BUYYES19+$1,114$2,299 Jul 08BUYYES17+$181$2,294 Jul 09BUYYES18+$0$2,341 Jul 09SELLYES17−$204$2,128 Jul 10BUYYES13+$1$1,612 Jul 14BUYYES35+$5,250$9,523 Jul 14SELLYES27−$148$7,188 Jul 15BUYYES30+$1,270$9,194 Jul 16BUYYES24+$2,818$10,288 Jul 16SELLYES34−$389$13,886 Jul 20BUYYES10+$14$4,303 Jul 22SELLYES15−$2$6,193 Realized−$209 Unrealized−$4,941 Total Profit−$5,150 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1088 trades).
0xeec5..fe	Retail	NO	$2.7K	+10%
This Market Entered at 76c → now 50c (+10%), $2.7K on NO Activity · 17 events · Jun 18 → Jul 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 18BUYNO91+$48$48 Jun 30BUYNO67+$928$964 Jun 30SELLNO73−$54$988 Jul 01SELLNO54−$9$719 Jul 02BUYNO61+$2$818 Jul 04BUYNO83+$158$1,271 Jul 05BUYNO82+$1,000$2,256 Jul 07BUYNO85+$646$2,988 Jul 07SELLNO88−$429$2,649 Jul 09BUYNO82+$165$2,657 Jul 12BUYNO82+$21$2,668 Jul 13BUYNO71+$720$3,027 Jul 15BUYNO72+$23$3,115 Jul 17BUYNO68+$47$2,948 Jul 20BUYNO86+$129$3,885 Jul 20SELLNO88−$1,125$2,832 Jul 22BUYNO85+$13$2,760 Realized+$196 Unrealized+$210 Total Profit+$406 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1378 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

27% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,335 on $9.9K capital deployed (avg -64.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

27% in profit

YES positions

73% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	17c	$5.5M	0c
AI Consensus	17c	—	✓ matched

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