Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $5.5M

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Q: How did 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUL 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

1 of 5 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	78c	56%
Compound Signal	NO	45c	10%
Claude Analysis	???	34c	42%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	62c	55%
Kimi Macro	YES	64c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 57c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money is one-directional here: two tracked wallets accumulated YES cheap (18c-29c) and none faded the move, signaling conviction that LeBron stays in Miami through 2026-27. The absence of any NO positioning combined with in-the-money entries reads as a directional YES lean rather than hedged noise, though a 2-wallet sample is thin and should be treated as a soft signal.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x011f..22	Retail	YES	$14.2K	+62%
This Market Entered at 18c → now 50c (+62%), $14.2K on YES Activity · 20 events · Jun 30 → Jul 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 30BUYYES14+$54$54 Jul 01SELLYES16−$143$0 Jul 03BUYYES11+$16$16 Jul 06BUYYES14+$644$665 Jul 07BUYYES18+$4,070$4,932 Jul 08BUYYES18+$0$4,796 Jul 08SELLYES16−$131$4,248 Jul 09BUYYES21+$1,999$7,590 Jul 10BUYYES18+$45$6,505 Jul 10SELLYES18−$41$6,381 Jul 13BUYYES22+$22$7,850 Jul 13SELLYES22−$657$7,236 Jul 14BUYYES16+$622$6,068 Jul 14SELLYES15−$223$5,202 Jul 16BUYYES14+$63$5,049 Jul 16SELLYES14−$218$4,745 Jul 20SELLYES50−$1,388$15,606 Jul 21BUYYES43+$13$13,431 Jul 21SELLYES41−$50$12,816 Jul 22SELLYES50−$272$15,420 Realized+$1,069 Unrealized+$8,687 Total Profit+$9,755 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1088 trades).
0xd039..32	MM	NO	$2.6K	-8%
This Market Entered at 58c → now 50c (-8%), $2.6K on NO Activity · 3 events · Jul 18 → Jul 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 18BUYNO56+$224$224 Jul 22BUYNO58+$2,930$3,163 Jul 22SELLNO55−$310$2,694 Realized−$16 Unrealized−$234 Total Profit−$250 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1314) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$1.9K	+37%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (+37%), $1.9K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jul 12 → Jul 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 12BUYYES23+$700$700 Jul 20BUYYES47+$500$1,921 Realized— Unrealized+$707 Total Profit+$707 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (248) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

14% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$14,184 on $18.7K capital deployed (avg -76.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

14% in profit

YES positions

86% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	47c	$5.5M	0c
AI Consensus	57c	—	× missed

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