Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 24, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $97.1K

Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Q: How did 'Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 24, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 24

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 3 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	26c	48%
Compound Signal	NO	49c	2%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	38c	72%
Gemini Flash	???	50c	60%
Kimi Macro	NO	48c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 42c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 50c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$3.3K	-2%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 50c (-2%), $3.3K on NO Activity · 21 events · Nov 25 → May 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Nov 25BUYNO40+$15$15 Dec 06BUYNO43+$4$20 Dec 12BUYNO47+$470$493 Dec 28BUYNO31+$22$347 Feb 12BUYNO54+$37$642 Mar 04BUYNO60+$37$748 Mar 21BUYNO62+$383$1,156 Apr 12BUYNO63+$53$1,225 Apr 14BUYNO52+$30$1,048 Apr 19BUYNO54+$53$1,138 Apr 22BUYNO50+$504$1,568 Apr 25BUYNO34+$2$1,058 May 03BUYNO53+$106$1,755 May 05BUYNO30+$29$1,023 May 06BUYNO30+$180$1,203 May 09BUYNO32+$2$1,299 May 10BUYNO31+$10$1,256 May 15BUYNO48+$2,734$4,685 May 17BUYNO56+$183$5,629 May 18BUYNO56+$56$5,685 May 19BUYNO57+$455$6,252 Realized— Unrealized−$151 Total Profit−$151 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1398 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,316 on $3.3K capital deployed (avg +101.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	52c	$97.1K	0c
AI Consensus	42c	—	✓ matched

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