AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 68c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 95c |
90%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 65c |
50%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 91c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 85c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money positioning is thin — just one wallet with a YES entry at 89c, nearly flat to current 91c pricing. The late, near-market entry signals trend-following rather than edge, and the flagged NO dominant side suggests broader flow disagrees with this lone YES bet.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd48a..90 | MM | YES | $1.0K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$120 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg +11.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $134.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 85c | — | ✓ matched |