AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 73c |
58%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c |
35%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 48c |
31%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 72c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 35c |
45%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 66c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES with a 77c entry, a moderately bullish but now offside bet on Lula leading the first round. With no NO entries to compare against, this is a one-sided signal: conviction in a Lula plurality exists, but the wallet's unrealized loss suggests it entered late or the market has since repriced lower. Directionally it still reads as pro-Lula, though the lack of fresh accumulation at 72c weakens the case for immediate upside.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $4.3K | -8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$4,332 on $4.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $3.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 66c | — | × missed |