As of September 18, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?” at 72% YES with $56K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 72% probability to: will lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 brazil presidential election?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moModels see 9-point mispricing — fair value 81c vs market 72c. BUY YES at 72c — models see 9c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 72c | 35% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 52c | 62% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 72c | 65% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 55% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
3 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (72–98c vs 72c). Gemini Flash leads with 65% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 81c — market prices it at 72c. 9-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 78c, signaling a bullish conviction on Lula leading the first round, but that position is now 6c out of the money. With no NO entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money counterweight signaling a reversal, so the dominant YES side reflects one-sided positioning rather than broad confirmation. Directionally, the wallet's entry implies expected YES strength, though the lack of additional tracked flow leaves the signal weak and unconfirmed.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $3.9K | -8% |
With YES trading at 72c against entries at 78c, all YES holders are underwater and no NO positions are in profit, leaving zero profitable participants. The 6c gap between current price and the lone YES entry creates mild downside pressure as that holder absorbs unrealized losses, but the absence of profitable NO capital means there is little aggressive selling to push the price lower. Support is therefore thin and sentiment-driven rather than backed by profitable momentum on either side.
Polymarket prices YES at 72c with $56K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 81c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $56K |
| Our Model | 81c | — |