Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (7 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $13.0M

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Q: How did 'Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 20, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 20

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 7 of 7 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	6c	88%
Compound Signal	NO	30c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	13c	85%
Gemini Flash	NO	18c	75%
Kimi Macro	NO	14c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 4 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 3 market makers are providing $52K in liquidity, primarily on YES. All 1 positioned NO — unanimous.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Smart	NO	$1.8K	0%
This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (0%), $1.8K on NO Activity · 37 events · Aug 31 → May 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 31BUYNO89+$445$445 Sep 16BUYNO89+$106$551 Oct 05BUYNO81+$398$899 Oct 06BUYNO82+$1,156$2,066 Oct 07BUYNO82+$189$2,256 Oct 08BUYNO82+$259$2,515 Oct 09BUYNO82+$201$2,716 Oct 10BUYNO82+$184$2,900 Oct 17BUYNO81+$162$3,026 Oct 19BUYNO80+$10$2,999 Oct 26BUYNO76+$75$2,924 Nov 09BUYNO72+$4,387$7,150 Nov 22BUYNO73+$145$7,417 Nov 23BUYNO79+$79$8,102 Jan 04BUYNO78+$775$8,724 Jan 08BUYNO81+$319$9,488 Jan 17BUYNO85+$44$9,945 Jan 18BUYNO83+$598$10,309 Jan 19BUYNO83+$172$10,481 Jan 20BUYNO83+$150$10,631 Jan 23BUYNO83+$354$10,986 Jan 28BUYNO76+$738$10,797 Feb 06BUYNO86+$8$12,225 Feb 16BUYNO71+$92$10,185 Feb 23BUYNO64+$192$9,376 Mar 01BUYNO64+$63$9,437 Mar 04BUYNO79+$96$11,721 Apr 11BUYNO70+$141$10,614 Apr 12BUYNO67+$72$10,186 Apr 14BUYNO60+$479$9,583 Apr 15BUYNO60+$1,200$10,783 Apr 19BUYNO44+$863$8,740 Apr 22BUYNO41+$453$8,665 Apr 26BUYNO51+$273$10,993 May 10BUYNO80+$3,950$21,197 May 13BUYNO82+$140$21,886 May 18BUYNO88+$1,838$25,267 Realized— Unrealized−$27 Total Profit−$27 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 1072 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0xa987..1d	MM	NO	$43.0K	+0%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+0%), $43.0K on NO Activity · 12 events · Sep 20 → Nov 09 DatePositionAmountTotal Sep 20BUYNO88+$2,600$2,600 Sep 21BUYNO88+$24,186$26,786 Sep 27SELLNO83−$1,646$23,512 Oct 15BUYNO80+$3,176$25,934 Oct 24BUYNO77+$48$25,010 Oct 26SELLNO77−$48$24,961 Oct 27BUYNO83+$5,299$32,082 Nov 01BUYNO85+$7,140$40,119 Nov 07BUYNO82+$2,657$41,391 Nov 08BUYNO80+$36$40,417 Nov 08SELLNO81−$390$40,609 Nov 09SELLNO70−$210$34,819 Realized−$182 Unrealized+$318 Total Profit+$136 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (592) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x578d..b3	MM	YES	$5.4K	-42%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 50c (-42%), $5.4K on YES Activity · 3 events · Aug 17 → Aug 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 17BUYYES23+$2,845$2,845 Aug 18BUYYES25+$5,119$8,210 Aug 20BUYYES25+$1,592$9,938 Realized— Unrealized−$4,189 Total Profit−$4,189 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (416) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x439b..9a	MM	YES	$3.6K	-70%
This Market Entered at 37c → now 50c (-70%), $3.6K on YES Activity · 3 events · Dec 22 → Jan 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Dec 22BUYYES38+$4,838$4,838 Dec 29BUYYES38+$4,089$8,941 Jan 02BUYYES32+$918$8,447 Realized— Unrealized−$6,281 Total Profit−$6,281 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (428) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

83% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,592 on $53.8K capital deployed (avg -3.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

83% in profit

YES positions

17% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	14c	$13.0M	0c
AI Consensus	16c	—	✓ matched

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