Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 15, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $586.4K

Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Q: How did 'Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 15, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 15

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (5 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 5 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	41c	18%
Compound Signal	YES	63c	26%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	85c	70%
Gemini Flash	???	60c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	82c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 66c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 2c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$1.1K	+82%
This Market Entered at 2c → now 50c (+82%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 17 events · Dec 30 → May 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Dec 30BUYNO77+$163$163 Jan 08BUYNO88+$750$935 Jan 31BUYNO56+$4$601 Feb 07BUYNO50+$16$548 Feb 12BUYNO50+$554$1,110 Feb 21BUYNO52+$52$1,210 Feb 22BUYNO50+$78$1,231 Mar 04BUYNO24+$205$801 Mar 19BUYNO17+$3$555 Mar 20BUYNO14+$8$474 Mar 21BUYNO15+$1$509 Mar 27BUYNO11+$5$378 Apr 26BUYNO17+$50$624 May 03BUYNO5+$9$196 May 04BUYNO2+$53$119 May 05BUYNO2+$129$280 May 08BUYNO1+$1$132 Realized— Unrealized+$1,008 Total Profit+$1,008 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1030 trades).

See all 80 alpha wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,139 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	82c	$586.4K	100c
AI Consensus	66c	—	✓ matched

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