AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 93c |
86%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 67c |
34%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 87c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 86c |
70%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 35c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 87c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 93c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Lone smart money entry at 91c signals late-stage confidence in launch timing, but the entry near current price provides minimal edge. With dominant side flagged NO and zero profitable positions, smart money positioning is unconfirmed — the 88c quote reflects market momentum more than tracked-wallet conviction.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | MM | YES | $9.2K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$949 on $9.2K capital deployed (avg +10.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $2.8M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 81c | — | ✓ matched |