Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 20, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $64.3K

Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?

Q: How did 'Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 20, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 20

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	54c	8%
Compound Signal	NO	31c	38%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	75%
Gemini Flash	NO	25c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	8c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 25c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 11c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$1.1K	-20%
This Market Entered at 11c → now 50c (-20%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 21 events · Apr 03 → May 15 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 03BUYYES3+$5$5 Apr 13BUYYES1+$1$3 Apr 25BUYYES1+$11$13 Apr 27BUYYES2+$3$27 Apr 28BUYYES7+$67$167 Apr 29BUYYES11+$181$438 Apr 30BUYYES20+$399$1,182 May 01BUYYES20+$177$1,361 May 02BUYYES17+$17$1,180 May 03BUYYES16+$266$1,413 May 04BUYYES14+$56$1,269 May 05BUYYES13+$13$1,211 May 07BUYYES12+$45$1,143 May 08BUYYES12+$37$1,207 May 09BUYYES15+$42$1,517 May 10BUYYES15+$83$1,613 May 11BUYYES16+$282$2,039 May 12BUYYES16+$16$1,992 May 13BUYYES10+$931$2,140 May 14BUYYES8+$45$1,861 May 15BUYYES8+$8$1,824 Realized— Unrealized−$426 Total Profit−$426 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1030 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,055 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	8c	$64.3K	0c
AI Consensus	25c	—	✓ matched

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