How did 'Will Neymar play in the World Cup?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 25, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 25, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $3.5M

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Resolved · JUN 25

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (7 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	93c	86%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	67c	34%
Claude Analysis	YES	91c	72%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	93c	82%
Kimi Macro	YES	90c	85%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 89c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money has committed exclusively to YES in the 88c-92c band, treating Neymar's participation as a near-certainty rather than a contested outcome. The dominant_side NO tag conflicts with actual wallet flow here — entry concentration near current price suggests accumulation, not distribution, though the lack of fresh NO opposition means upside convexity is limited.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$48.4K	+6%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+6%), $48.4K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 22 → Jun 08 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 22BUYYES41+$859$859 May 18BUYYES81+$279$1,977 May 21BUYYES92+$17,733$19,978 May 22BUYYES81+$2,700$20,335 May 26SELLYES91−$3,849$18,937 Jun 08BUYYES90+$27,961$46,756 Realized+$205 Unrealized+$2,617 Total Profit+$2,822 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1698) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xcaab..dd	MM	YES	$3.2K	+2%
This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (+2%), $3.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jun 12 → Jun 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 12BUYYES92+$3,222$3,222 Jun 17SELLYES88−$114$2,978 Realized−$5 Unrealized+$61 Total Profit+$56 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1686) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,607 on $51.6K capital deployed (avg +12.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$3.5M	100c
AI Consensus	89c	—	✓ matched

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