AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 2 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 86c |
72%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 44c |
12%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 48c |
35%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 57c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 54c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned for no-meeting at 8c — a deep-tail bet that has already played out to 43c as diplomatic engagement remained absent. That entry zone signals the tracked wallet was pricing structural US-Iran impasse months out, not reacting to short-term headlines, and the lack of any NO-side smart money suggests no credible counter-thesis on a June 30 meeting materializing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x22db..0f | Retail | YES | $1.1K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,122 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 29c | $2.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 54c | — | × missed |