AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 59c |
18%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 37c |
26%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 15c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 35c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 19c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 30c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is positioned long Djokovic at a deep-discount 10c entry, signaling a contrarian bet that the market underprices his Roland Garros odds. The clean YES-only structure with no hedging suggests directional conviction rather than arbitrage — this wallet sees asymmetric upside, not a trade to fade.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $2.6K | +31% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,620 on $2.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 17c | $1.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 30c | — | ✓ matched |