Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 31, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $1.8M

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Q: How did 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 31, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 31

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (4 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	70c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	84c	75%
Gemini Flash	YES	90c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	95c	90%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$5.4K	+21%
This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (+21%), $5.4K on YES Activity · 3 events · May 02 → May 05 DatePositionAmountTotal May 02BUYYES75+$789$789 May 03BUYYES79+$3,211$4,043 May 05BUYYES79+$444$4,480 Realized— Unrealized+$926 Total Profit+$926 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (136) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,492 on $5.4K capital deployed (avg +27.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	95c	$1.8M	100c
AI Consensus	87c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar