Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 77%: Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (77% YES). Nvidia sets new record with nearly $5.3 trillion value after AI darling surges 4%.

What’s Happening

Nvidia's market capitalization surged to a record nearly $5.3 trillion on April 27, 2026, after shares closed up 4%, marking the highest valuation ever recorded by a publicly traded company. The chipmaker's stock hit $5.26 trillion during the trading session, with gains extending into after-hours activity, according to Forbes Australia. This milestone follows a string of boosts that began earlier in April, including a 4.3% jump on April 24 that pushed the company's market cap past $5 trillion for the first time since October 2025, driven by a rally in chip stocks and a nuclear power deal with Oklo Inc. [Forbes, Mon Apr 27]

The company's valuation now exceeds the combined market caps of Apple and Saudi Aramco, making the question of whether Nvidia will be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 a central focus for institutional investors. Nvidia's market cap surpassed $5 trillion again on April 24, with shares trading at $208.94, according to TipRanks, making it the only publicly traded company at that threshold. The rally was amplified by Intel's best single-day gain since 1987, surging 24%, which lifted the entire semiconductor sector ahead of earnings reports from major cloud hyperscalers. [TipRanks, Sat Apr 25]

The probability that Nvidia will be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 currently stands at 77%, reflecting market expectations that the AI chip leader will maintain its lead over competitors like Apple and Microsoft. Nvidia added more than $200 billion in market value on April 24 alone, with its graphics processing unit (GPU) demand remaining robust as hyperscalers increase capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. The next catalyst is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 7, where a hold or cut could further boost growth stocks, while Nvidia's own quarterly earnings report, expected in late May, will provide the clearest signal on whether the company can sustain its $5.3 trillion valuation through the month's end. [Yahoo Finance, Fri Apr 24]

Traded on Polymarket — $153K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 77c YES with $153K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.