AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 65c |
30%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 43c |
14%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 58c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 65c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 70c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 60c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money accumulated Anunoby at depressed sub-dime prices well before the market re-rated to 31c, signaling early conviction on a non-consensus Finals MVP path. The absence of NO positioning from tracked wallets reinforces directional bias — alpha is exclusively long, suggesting continued upside skew rather than a fade setup.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd1ed..cb | Retail | YES | $6.6K | +97% | |
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $4.1K | +182% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$10,649 on $10.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30c | $348.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 60c | — | × missed |