AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 7 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
80%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
42%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 86c, positioning against the market and already sitting on a 6c gain per share. This smart-money NO entry signals conviction that OpenAI will not announce another Millennium Prize solution by the deadline, reinforcing bearish momentum on YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe25b..1b | MM | NO | $20.9K | +9% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,446 on $20.9K capital deployed (avg +16.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $223.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |