AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 85c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
62%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 86c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 39c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned on NO at 14c, a contrarian bet against the 88c market that is now significantly out of the money. This lone NO entry signals skepticism toward OpenAI reaching a $1T valuation by December 31, but with only one wallet tracked, it lacks the weight of broader smart-money consensus. The position implies the trader sees the 88c YES price as overextended, though the market has yet to validate that view.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $1.1K | -46% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,073 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $138.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 39c | — | × missed |