OpenAI's valuation already sits near $500B from its 2025 secondary sale, and 2026 IPO buzz plus continued private-market markups make $1T by year-end plausible.
The question of whether OpenAI's valuation hit (high) $1.0T by December 31 has moved to the center of Wall Street's attention as the company prepares for a public listing alongside rivals SpaceX and Anthropic. According to Forbes, the AI sector's transition from private to public markets represents a historic capital shift, with frontier labs preparing to test whether public investors will absorb unprecedented capital expenditures on computing infrastructure. The three companies are collectively targeting trillion-dollar valuations based on publicly disclosed numbers for the first time, a benchmark that has so far been set entirely by private rounds. [Forbes, Jun 4]
Anthropic took a major step toward beating OpenAI to the public markets this week, hitting a $965 billion valuation and reporting a $47 billion revenue run rate toward the end of May, per CNBC. The confidential filing of its IPO prospectus places it directly ahead of OpenAI in the race to list. Meanwhile, PitchBook research published June 5 found that OpenAI is going public as the most expensive AI company in its peer group — not by market cap, but by what investors are paying per unit of business quality. In April, OpenAI renegotiated its revenue-sharing agreement with Microsoft, capping payments at $38 billion through 2030 and saving an estimated $70-97 billion. [CNBC, Jun 5]
Whether OpenAI's valuation hit (high) $1.0T by December 31 depends on the sequencing of the listings now in motion. Bloomberg reported on June 1 that SpaceX's planned June IPO may absorb investor attention ahead of the OpenAI and Anthropic debuts later in the year, potentially compressing pricing windows. Reuters has reported SpaceX is considering a listing at a valuation exceeding the trillion-dollar threshold, setting a benchmark peer labs will be measured against. With Anthropic already at $965 billion and filing first, the remaining catalyst for OpenAI is the formal pricing of its own offering — expected in the second half of 2026 — and whether public-market demand sustains the private-round trajectory. [Bloomberg, Jun 1]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 76c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 14c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 14c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $2.8K | +82% |
NO wallets entered at 14c. At current price 76c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 76c with $50K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 76c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 76c | $50K |
| Our Model | 76c | — |