Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 66%: Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (66% YES, 34% NO). OpenAI Files for IPO a Week After Anthropic as AI Giants Race to Wall Street.

What’s Happening

OpenAI confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering, the company announced on Monday, June 8, 2026. The filing arrived just one week after rival Anthropic submitted its own confidential S-1 on June 1, and days before SpaceX was set to begin trading at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation. CNBC reported the OpenAI listing could value the ChatGPT maker at more than $1 trillion, though the company has not yet disclosed timing for the offering. The cluster of filings positions the second half of 2026 as the most consequential stretch for AI public-market debuts to date, with implications for whether OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31 becomes a realistic benchmark. [CNBC, Jun 9]

The three offerings — SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI — collectively carry valuations that could cross the trillion-dollar threshold, testing whether public investors will validate private-market pricing built during the AI capital surge. Ynetnews characterized the wave as one of the largest concentrated tests of AI economics yet, with the companies behind ChatGPT, Claude and Starlink moving in parallel toward listings. Forbes described the sequence as potentially the largest wealth-creation event in Wall Street history, with thousands of employees positioned to realize equity, and Elon Musk in contention to become the world's first trillionaire. San Francisco, home to both OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to absorb a significant share of the resulting liquidity. [Ynetnews, Jun 10]

CNN reported that the listings will subject the three companies to quarterly scrutiny for the first time, exposing AI unit economics — training spend, inference margins, enterprise contract durability — to disclosure standards private rounds do not require. Whether OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31 depends on roadshow demand, comparable trading multiples on Anthropic and SpaceX, and macro conditions in the second half of 2026. OpenAI has not specified a pricing window, and a draft S-1 filing typically precedes public trading by several months, leaving an open question about whether the company prices and trades before the December 31 deadline. The Forbes account flagged that valuation outcomes will hinge as much on AI revenue durability as on broader IPO appetite. [Forbes, Jun 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $52K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($52K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 66c YES.