AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (6 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 68c |
36%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 88c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 83c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 65c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 83c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money exposure is minimal — just one tracked wallet on YES at 93c, three cents above current — indicating alpha capital is not anchoring this market. The dominant NO side combined with an underwater YES entry suggests informed flow is skeptical of Evette's pricing, leaning toward fade rather than conviction long.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $6.0K | +3% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.9K | -27% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$7,871 on $7.9K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 68c | $352.3K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 81c | — | × missed |