AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 75c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 93c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 86c |
40%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 95c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 89c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entry at 91c on a market now trading 95c signals confidence that Park Chan-dae's win is close to a foregone conclusion, with the wallet treating the 4-9c residual as cheap optionality on certainty. The absence of any tracked NO positioning reinforces a one-sided book — directional read is YES holds through resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1bc6..36 | Smart | YES | $1.8K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$173 on $1.8K capital deployed (avg +9.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 95c | $221.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 89c | — | ✓ matched |