Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 04, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $357.2K

Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Q: How did 'Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jun 04, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 04

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (3 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	63c	26%
Compound Signal	NO	40c	20%
Claude Analysis	NO	22c	45%
DeepSeek Quant	???	40c	30%
Gemini Flash	???	45c	55%
Kimi Macro	NO	24c	60%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 39c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

Only 1 tracked wallet positioned, entering YES at 30c and now sitting 4c underwater with zero NO interest from smart money. Thin participation signals low conviction in Park Heong-joon's path; the YES tilt reflects a single bet rather than a coordinated alpha thesis.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7616..ee	Retail	YES	$1.1K	-17%
This Market Entered at 30c → now 50c (-17%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 61 events · Dec 07 → Apr 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Dec 07BUYYES48+$7$7 Dec 11BUYYES54+$30$38 Dec 16BUYYES69+$9$57 Dec 25BUYYES67+$8$64 Dec 28BUYYES69+$10$76 Jan 01BUYYES65+$20$91 Jan 02BUYYES57+$11$92 Jan 06BUYYES56+$5$95 Jan 10BUYYES53+$32$122 Jan 11BUYYES54+$1$125 Jan 15BUYYES51+$11$129 Jan 17BUYYES54+$1$138 Jan 18BUYYES48+$2$125 Jan 22BUYYES48+$4$130 Jan 23BUYYES49+$1$133 Jan 25BUYYES52+$2$144 Jan 29BUYYES48+$8$140 Feb 01BUYYES49+$1$144 Feb 02BUYYES46+$5$140 Feb 05BUYYES46+$20$158 Feb 06BUYYES47+$26$189 Feb 07BUYYES48+$10$204 Feb 11BUYYES45+$50$241 Feb 14BUYYES42+$43$269 Feb 15BUYYES46+$56$349 Feb 16BUYYES47+$5$362 Feb 17BUYYES46+$6$361 Feb 18BUYYES45+$18$375 Feb 20BUYYES45+$13$381 Feb 21BUYYES43+$26$390 Feb 22BUYYES38+$137$482 Feb 23BUYYES33+$53$472 Feb 24BUYYES32+$50$508 Feb 25BUYYES30+$57$529 Feb 27BUYYES27+$45$519 Feb 28BUYYES26+$54$568 Mar 01BUYYES26+$45$614 Mar 02BUYYES28+$28$682 Mar 07BUYYES30+$32$761 Mar 08BUYYES28+$37$759 Mar 09BUYYES29+$44$819 Mar 10BUYYES29+$5$824 Mar 11BUYYES28+$28$824 Mar 13BUYYES29+$9$862 Mar 14BUYYES28+$28$860 Mar 15BUYYES28+$25$886 Mar 16BUYYES24+$21$771 Mar 17BUYYES23+$40$803 Mar 18BUYYES27+$11$942 Mar 19BUYYES24+$1$832 Mar 21BUYYES26+$5$907 Mar 22BUYYES28+$4$989 Mar 24BUYYES29+$5$1,028 Mar 26BUYYES28+$47$1,021 Mar 27BUYYES26+$103$1,072 Mar 28BUYYES26+$65$1,146 Mar 29BUYYES25+$12$1,086 Apr 01BUYYES21+$4$923 Apr 06BUYYES21+$2$925 Apr 08BUYYES18+$30$812 Apr 10BUYYES17+$14$792 Realized— Unrealized−$195 Total Profit−$195 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1908 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,145 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	26c	$357.2K	0c
AI Consensus	39c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar