AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 91c |
82%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 64c |
28%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 74c |
45%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 78c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 78c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is one-sided YES: two wallets both bought the 79c region, signaling directional confidence in Nordone as the nominee despite the subsequent slip to 73c. The clustered entries with no NO exposure read as a conviction bet on YES, but the underwater status means the signal is unconfirmed by profit and vulnerable if price keeps sliding.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xb8e6..67 | Smart | YES | $1.6K | -45% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $2.4K | -43% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,275 on $4.0K capital deployed (avg +31.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44c | $2.4M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 77c | — | ✓ matched |