Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next?

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). UFC 328 Countdown | Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland.

What’s Happening

The prediction market for a potential bantamweight bout between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili currently sits at a 74% probability of occurring next, reflecting strong speculation within the mixed martial arts community. This matchup has been a recurring topic of discussion, particularly following the release of the UFC 328 Countdown episode, which prominently featured a segment titled "UFC 323 Countdown | Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2." The inclusion of this specific fight in promotional materials for the upcoming May 9, 2026 event in Newark, New Jersey, suggests the organization is actively considering or preparing for a rematch between the two bantamweight contenders. The market's high probability indicates that bettors and analysts view this as a likely booking, especially given the historical context of their first encounter and the current state of the division. [UFC, Sun May 03]

The significance of a potential Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili rematch is underscored by recent commentary from former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker. In his analysis of the upcoming UFC 328 main event between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, Whittaker referenced the bantamweight rivalry, stating, "we say that and then, like Merab [Dvalishvili] before he lost to Petr [Yan], it’s the exact same question." This remark highlights how the Yan-Dvalishvili dynamic serves as a benchmark for evaluating fighter trajectories and stylistic puzzles within the UFC. The first fight, which Yan won via unanimous decision at UFC 323, has left lingering questions about Dvalishvili's ability to adjust his wrestling-heavy approach against Yan's precise striking and takedown defense. A rematch would carry significant implications for the bantamweight title picture, as both fighters remain near the top of the rankings. [MMA Fighting, Tue May 05]

Looking ahead, the confirmation of a Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next would likely be announced in conjunction with upcoming UFC events, possibly as a co-main or featured bout on a numbered card later in 2026. The UFC's recent multiyear marketing partnership with Adjarabet, an online sports betting company based in Georgia—Dvalishvili's home country—adds an intriguing layer to the narrative. This deal, announced on May 1, 2026, could increase promotional interest in fights involving Georgian fighters, potentially accelerating the booking of a rematch. For Yan, a win would solidify his position as a top contender, while Dvalishvili would seek redemption and a chance to prove his evolution as a fighter. The market's current 74% probability suggests that fans and analysts expect this matchup to materialize sooner rather than later, with the UFC 328 promotional materials serving as a strong indicator of the organization's intentions. [UFC, Fri May 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $64K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($64K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 81c YES.