AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 97c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 75c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 95c |
80%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 90c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 60c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 92c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 90c |
85%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 87c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money accumulated PSG YES in the 83-89c band before the final push toward resolution, a classic late-stage conviction pattern on a dominant domestic favorite. The absence of NO entries signals one-directional consensus: tracked wallets see residual 6c upside as low-variance carry into resolution rather than a contested outcome.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfa5f..5f | MM | YES | $5.3K | +12% | |
| 0x439b..9a | MM | YES | $4.4K | +10% | |
| 0x578d..b3 ★ | MM | YES | $1.5K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,993 on $11.2K capital deployed (avg +17.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $218.1K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 87c | — | ✓ matched |