AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
75%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 90c, signaling early conviction that Jodar would not win the 2026 French Open. This positioning has fully played out as the market priced YES down to 10c, leaving no smart money accumulating the long-shot YES side. Directional signal remains decisively NO with no contrarian alpha entries to suggest reversal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $5.1K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$571 on $5.1K capital deployed (avg +11.3%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $1.1M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 13c | — | ✓ matched |