AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 62c |
24%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 40c |
20%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 22c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 18c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 51c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 40c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked entry at 13c shows conviction was built when Rajasthan was priced as a deep longshot, and the wallet has chosen to hold rather than fade into the 24c re-rate — a directional signal, not a trade. With only one wallet on file, this is a low-confidence YES lean: the entry validates that smart money saw value in the bottom-quartile pricing, but a single position can't anchor a thesis on its own.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $6.6K | +45% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$6,603 on $6.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $333.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 40c | — | ✓ matched |